Universal Healthcare Probably Requires LOWER Taxes, Not Higher
Warren Mosler · Deficit Owls
Before you watch
After watching this video, you should be able to explain why Mosler judges a tax rise by its effect on spending and inflation, not whether it 'pays for' a program.
Why this matters. Every big Australian policy proposal meets the question 'how will you pay for it?'. Mosler's answer is unusual, and seeing why it is contested sharpens what that question really asks.
A four-and-a-half-minute excerpt from Steve Grumbine's interview with Warren Mosler for Real Progressives, about Medicare for All in the United States and how Bernie Sanders' campaign proposed to pay for it. Mosler argues that a single public health insurer would remove a large amount of private administrative spending, so the real question is whether the economy then needs more or less spending, not how to 'pay for' the program. The context is American: Australia already has Medicare.
Three things to remember
- Established This clip is about the US, which has no universal public health insurance. Australia already has Medicare, and taxpayers generally pay a 2 per cent Medicare levy on top of income tax.
- Official view In Australia the Parliamentary Budget Office reports the budget impact of each major party's election commitments. That is the 'how will you pay for it?' frame Mosler rejects as the main test.
- Argument Mosler argues Medicare for All would remove roughly US$1 trillion of private administrative spending, a deflationary shock, so raising taxes at the same time would push up unemployment.
Can you explain it?
Optional. Try as often as you like; nothing is scored or sent anywhere.
Show the answer
It would remove a large amount of private spending on health administration, so total spending would fall unless something replaced it.
Yes. His point is about total spending: if administrative wages disappear, demand falls, so adding a tax rise on top would make things worse. He concedes some offsetting effects, such as households no longer paying premiums.
Suppose the federal government proposes free childcare costing $10 billion a year. Using Mosler's framework, what would you want to know before deciding whether to raise taxes? What would a mainstream economist add?
Show a model answer
Mosler would ask whether the economy has spare capacity: enough educators, centres and equipment to deliver it, and whether extra spending would push total demand past what the economy can produce. He would also count offsets, such as parents working more and household budgets freed up. If inflation risk is low, no tax rise is needed. A mainstream economist would add the PBO costing and budget rules, the interest cost of extra borrowing, and the political test of whether voters accept the cost.
A strong answer
- Asks about real resources (workers, centres) and inflation, not just the dollar cost.
- Mentions offsetting effects on spending, such as extra workforce participation.
- Adds at least one practical role of revenue: budget rules, interest costs, PBO costings or accountability.